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Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002-15 Hardcover – November 25, 2015

by Edward Chancellor (Editor)
4.5 4.5 out of 5 stars 618 ratings
See all formats and editions
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We live in an age of serial asset bubbles and spectacular busts. Economists, policymakers, central bankers and most people in the financial world have been blindsided by these busts, while investors have lost trillions. Economists argue that bubbles can only be spotted after they burst and that market moves are unpredictable. Yet Marathon Asset Management, a London-based investment firm managing over $50 billion of assets has developed a relatively simple method for identifying and potentially avoiding them: follow the money, or rather the trail of investment. Bubbles whether they affect a whole economy or merely a single industry, tend to attract a splurge of capital spending. Excessive investment drives down returns and leads inexorably to a bust. This was the case with both the technology bubble at the turn of the century and the US housing bubble which followed shortly after. More recently, vast sums have been invested in mining and energy. From an investor's perspective, the trick is to avoid investing in sectors, or markets, where investment spending is unduly elevated and competition is fierce, and to put one's money to work where capital expenditure is depressed, competitive conditions are more favourable and, as a result, prospective investment returns are higher. This capital cycle strategy encourages investors to eschew the simple 'growth' and 'value' dichotomy and identify firms that can deliver superior returns either because capital has been taken out of an industry, or because the business has strong barriers to entry (what Warren Buffett refers to as a 'moat'). Some of Marathon's most successful investments have come from obscure, sometimes niche operations whose businesses are protected from the destructive forces of the capital cycle. Capital Returns is a comprehensive introduction to the theory and practical implementation of the capital cycle approach to investment. Edited and with an introduction by Edward Chancellor, the book brings together 60 of the most insightful reports written between 2002 and 2014 by Marathon portfolio managers. Capital Returns provides key insights into the capital cycle strategy, all supported with real life examples from global brewers to the semiconductor industry - showing how this approach can be usefully applied to different industry conditions and how, prior to 2008, it helped protect assets from financial catastrophe. This book will be a welcome reference for serious investors who looking to maximise portfolio returns over the long run.
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  1. Print length
    225 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Springer
  4. Publication date
    November 25, 2015
  5. Dimensions
    5.91 x 0.24 x 8.9 inches
  6. ISBN-10
    1137571640
  7. ISBN-13
    978-1137571649
  8. See all details
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Editorial Reviews

Review

“Capital Returns brings together industrial economics, Michael Porter’s competitive analysis and behavioral finance, into a powerful long-term investment approach that Marathon Asset Management calls ‘capital cycle’ analysis. … This is one of the best investing books I’ve read. Highly recommended!” (Strictly Value, strictlyvalue.wordpress.com, January, 2016)

“First, it covers an important and underappreciated subject, the capital cycle. Second, it contains a superb introduction by one of the great financial writers of our era, Edward Chancellor. … Capital Returns explores an oft-neglected mechanism in the capital markets. It will prove profitable reading for any finance professional, and for the securities analyst, it is essential reading.” (William J. Bernstein, CFA Institute Publications, cfapubs.org, Vol. 11 (1), 2016)


Review

'I read Capital Returns in one sitting. I wish this book had been available when I started in the business. One of the best books on investment I've ever read.'

-Russell Napier, author of Anatomy of the Bear

'Capital Returns shows how excess investment drives mean reversion in the stock market. Investors who wish to understand bubbles should read this book.'

-Jeremy Grantham, Founder and Chief Investment Strategist, Grantham, Mayo, van Otterloo

'Forget Warren Buffett. If you really want to know how markets work read this.'

-Merryn Somerset-Webb, Editor, MoneyWeek

'Investors, fancying themselves capitalists, have long ignored the vital role of capital investment in driving investment success. This wonderful book may change that. Delve into its readable and informative even revelatory pages, and let the scales fall from your eyes.'

-James Grant, Grant's Interest Rate Observer

'This book exemplifies the simple but sadly unrecognised ideathat long term investment success depends on understanding business models.'

John Kay, author of Other People's Money and the Kay Review of UK Equity Markets

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Springer; 2016th edition (November 25, 2015)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Hardcover ‏ : ‎ 225 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1137571640
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1137571649
  • Item Weight ‏ : ‎ 1.15 pounds
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 5.91 x 0.24 x 8.9 inches
  • Customer Reviews:
    4.5 4.5 out of 5 stars 618 ratings

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Edward Chancellor

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Customer reviews

4.5 out of 5 stars
618 global ratings

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Customers say

Customers find the book insightful and helpful for understanding commodity and investment cycles. They describe it as a good read with well-written content. Many consider it an excellent value and refreshing read that makes them think differently.

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InsightReadabilityValue for money
10 customers mention "Insight"10 positive0 negative

Customers find the book insightful and helpful for understanding commodity and investment cycles. They say it provides practical wisdom and helps them with their portfolios. Readers mention it's a must-read for value investors.

"...Capital Returns is accessible, insightful, and fun to read." Read more

"...around key value drivers; capital allocation, sustainable competitive advantage, business model, investor psychology and industry capital cycles...." Read more

"Well done despite numerous references to the company. Accurate even handed descriptive analysis. Useful insights with counter intuitive observations...." Read more

"...Capital Returns was extremely refreshing and made me see and think about new things. This is one I will definitely need to reread again and again...." Read more

7 customers mention "Readability"7 positive0 negative

Customers find the book easy to read and well-written. They say it's insightful and fun, with good content about recent market history. Readers mention it's accessible and can be read a section a day.

"...Capital Returns is accessible, insightful, and fun to read." Read more

"...Practical wisdom exudes from these well-written pages of recent market history. Essential reading for a fundamentally-driven investor...." Read more

"Well done despite numerous references to the company. Accurate even handed descriptive analysis. Useful insights with counter intuitive observations...." Read more

"...short (pieces of Marathon's letters over the years), so you could read a section a day." Read more

7 customers mention "Value for money"7 positive0 negative

Customers find the book provides good value for money. They appreciate its refreshing perspective and helpful capital cycle mindset.

"...advantage, business model, investor psychology and industry capital cycles...." Read more

"...Most don't add much new and refreshing information. Capital Returns was extremely refreshing and made me see and think about new things...." Read more

"I think this is an OK book...." Read more

"This Is such an undervalued Book - one of the best for understanding commodity and investment cycles. One of a kind for investors...." Read more

Top reviews from the United States

  • Michael Newton
    5.0 out of 5 stars Most accessible book on capital cycles
    Reviewed in the United States on January 5, 2022
    Verified Purchase
    Forget technicals and momentum. You want to understand how supply affects capital markets.

    Whether you are a stock picker, a manager deciding on growth projects, or anyone who allocates capital, this book gives you real-world examples of the ups and downs of capital cycles.

    It helps you to realize that things are too frothy (too pricey) and when the market is oversold (value picking).

    Combine this with Understanding Michael Porter by Joan Magretta and Value by McKinsey and you have most of what you need for a Strategy Development playbook. (Expectations Investing by Mauboussin is quickly closing in on being included in this group).

    Capital Returns is accessible, insightful, and fun to read.
    15 people found this helpful
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  • David Shepley
    5.0 out of 5 stars An investment Gem
    Reviewed in the United States on July 25, 2016
    Verified Purchase
    Truly a joy to read. A more holistic and complete harnessing of Marathon's investment philosophy than Capital Account. Practical wisdom exudes from these well-written pages of recent market history. Essential reading for a fundamentally-driven investor. Poignant discussions around key value drivers; capital allocation, sustainable competitive advantage, business model, investor psychology and industry capital cycles. Honest discussions via client communications adds a layer of authenticity. Take your time with this book, you will be well served. Capital Returns enters a worthy list of my favorite investment/business books: Charlie Munger the Complete Investor, More Than You Know, Origin of Wealth, Antifragile & Capital Returns. Enjoy!
    15 people found this helpful
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  • Denis Timko
    4.0 out of 5 stars Useful insights with counter intuitive observations
    Reviewed in the United States on April 24, 2016
    Verified Purchase
    Well done despite numerous references to the company. Accurate even handed descriptive analysis. Useful insights with counter intuitive observations. Good read
    4 people found this helpful
    Helpful
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  • Cliente de Amazon
    5.0 out of 5 stars Great book.
    Reviewed in the United States on June 18, 2024
    Verified Purchase
    Highly recommended.
    Helpful
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  • Claros luna
    3.0 out of 5 stars Different read
    Reviewed in the United States on October 4, 2024
    Verified Purchase
    The insights on cyclical natured companies can be of practical use. However, it definitely isn’t a page turner, it isn’t written in a way that makes it fun to read. To be fair, the book basically compromises of letters made by analysts reporting back on situations/companies in their covered regions. Needless to say, it covers a wideee geography so because of my ignorance on some of the covered areas it was much harder to finish.
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  • Michael L
    5.0 out of 5 stars Every finance library needs one
    Reviewed in the United States on July 19, 2016
    Verified Purchase
    Wow! This is a highly refreshing finance book. Being in the finance industry for several years, I have ready countless finance books. Most don't add much new and refreshing information. Capital Returns was extremely refreshing and made me see and think about new things. This is one I will definitely need to reread again and again. The sections are short (pieces of Marathon's letters over the years), so you could read a section a day.
    4 people found this helpful
    Helpful
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  • Will
    5.0 out of 5 stars “Cyclicals” Value Investing Bible
    Reviewed in the United States on December 31, 2017
    Verified Purchase
    Definitively a must have in any value investor’s library. It is especially valuable if you are sick and tired of reading those useless value investing books that just rehash Warren Buffett quotes. Capital Returns is focused on cyclical stocks and narrow most stocks value investing, and as such, it offers a glimpse into a more inefficient market, beyond the (by now) mainstream wide moat value investing popularized by our dear Buffett.
    5 people found this helpful
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  • Joshua T. Hill
    4.0 out of 5 stars Solid Read
    Reviewed in the United States on September 13, 2017
    Verified Purchase
    Overall, the book was solid, however, some of the memos became redundant. I'd recommend to anyone with a deep interest in investing.
    3 people found this helpful
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Top reviews from other countries

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  • Ashish Kumar
    5.0 out of 5 stars Great read
    Reviewed in Canada on October 25, 2023
    Verified Purchase
    I loved the various examples of how capital cycles have played out in history across various regions and industries.
    Report
  • PP
    5.0 out of 5 stars Good
    Reviewed in India on October 22, 2024
    Verified Purchase
    Good book.
    Report
  • Amazon Kunde
    5.0 out of 5 stars Unterhaltsam und lehrreich
    Reviewed in Germany on May 16, 2021
    Verified Purchase
    Interessante Beobachtungen.
    Report
  • Cliente Amazon
    2.0 out of 5 stars Nada del otro mundo
    Reviewed in Spain on March 27, 2019
    Verified Purchase
    Interesante pero sin más. Muchos libros mejores sobre ese tema.
    Report
  • sam
    1.0 out of 5 stars DO NOT BUY FROM THIS SELLER
    Reviewed in Singapore on May 16, 2023
    Verified Purchase
    Content is exceptional but the physical status of the book is downright horrible. Absolutely disappointing.
    Report